New NMDPRA Data Shows Nigerians Buying Less Petrol Despite Dangote Refinery Boost
Nigeria's petrol consumption fell by approximately 52 million litres in the first half of 2026, indicating that sustained high pump prices are beginning to influence consumer demand despite increased local refining capacity.
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Data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that between January and June 2026, Nigerians consumed an estimated 9.316 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), compared to 9.368 billion litres recorded during the same period in 2025. This represents a decline of 52 million litres, or 0.56%.
The regulator explained that the consumption figures were based on the quantity of petrol transported by trucks into the domestic market.
Source: Getty Images
Fuel Prices Continue to Shape Demand
The slight reduction in petrol consumption came as motorists continued to grapple with higher fuel prices following the removal of petrol subsidy and the deregulation of the downstream oil sector.
According to NMDPRA data, average retail prices in June 2026 ranged from N1,284.50 per litre in Lagos to N1,393 per litre in Maiduguri. In comparison, average prices in November 2025 stood between N910 per litre in Lagos and N982.50 per litre in Maiduguri, highlighting the significant rise in fuel costs over the period.
Monthly demand also fluctuated throughout the first half of the year. Average daily consumption was 60.2 million litres in January before falling to 56.9 million litres in February. It declined further to 47.3 million litres in March, recovered to 51.1 million litres in April, slipped to 46.3 million litres in May, and edged up to 47.4 million litres in June.
Using the number of days in each month, total petrol consumption was estimated at 1.866 billion litres in January, 1.593 billion litres in February, 1.466 billion litres in March, 1.533 billion litres in April, 1.435 billion litres in May, and 1.422 billion litres in June, bringing first-half consumption to 9.316 billion litres.
Local Refineries Supply Nearly 78% of Petrol
While demand softened slightly, domestic refining strengthened its dominance in Nigeria's fuel supply chain.
NMDPRA figures showed that local refineries delivered about 6.609 billion litres of PMS during the six-month period, accounting for 77.9% of the 8.482 billion litres supplied to the domestic market. Imported petrol made up the remaining 1.873 billion litres, representing 22.1% of total supply.
Local refinery deliveries averaged 40.1 million litres per day in January, 29.4 million litres in February, 34.2 million litres in March, 40.7 million litres in April, 41.5 million litres in May, and 32.5 million litres in June.
Imported volumes averaged 24.8 million litres daily in January, before dropping sharply to 3.0 million litres in February. Imports later rose to 5.9 million litres in March, 3.7 million litres in April, 5.9 million litres in May, and surged to 18.1 million litres per day in June.
Overall fuel supply averaged 64.9 million litres daily in January, declined to 32.4 million litres in February, then recovered progressively to 40.1 million litres in March, 44.4 million litres in April, 47.4 million litres in May, and 50.6 million litres in June.
Dangote Refinery Strengthens Supply Despite Low Fuel Reserves
The June report revealed that total daily PMS receipts increased by 7% from 47.4 million litres in May to 50.6 million litres in June. The rise was driven largely by imported fuel, which jumped by 207%, increasing from 5.9 million litres per day to 18.1 million litres per day, while domestic receipts declined by 22% from 41.5 million litres to 32.5 million litres per day.
According to the regulator, domestic receipts include petrol supplied through the Dangote Petroleum Refinery gantry as well as coastal evacuation volumes, while consumption reflects products distributed into the local market by trucks.
Source: Getty Images
The report also underscored the growing contribution of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. In June 2026, the refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 101.36%, producing 39.1 million litres of PMS daily. It supplied 32.5 million litres per day to the domestic market, exported 3.4 million litres daily, and ended the month with 410.7 million litres of petrol in storage.
Despite stronger local production, Nigeria's strategic fuel reserve remained below target. The NMDPRA reported that the country had 20 days of PMS stock sufficiency in June, falling short of its benchmark of 30 days.
Although the decline in petrol consumption was relatively modest, the latest figures suggest that higher fuel prices are gradually influencing consumer behaviour, even as increased domestic refining continues to reshape Nigeria's petroleum supply landscape.
Source: Legit.ng
