2019: Eurasia Group says Buhari will win presidential election by 60 percent

2019: Eurasia Group says Buhari will win presidential election by 60 percent

- A global research and political risk solutions firm, Eurasia Group, predicted victory for President Buhari in the forthcoming presidential election

- Eurasia Group predicted that Buhari will defeat his closest rival, Atiku, by 60%

- The group claimed that the key supporters who are supposed to pull their weight behind Atiku are exerting their energies and resources on the battle to retain their seats

A global research and political risk solutions firm based in New York, Eurasia Group, has predicted victory for President Muhammadu Buhari in the February 16 presidential election, specifying that the president will win by 60%.

The group predicted that the odds against President Buhari’s main challenger, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have positioned the incumbent to retain his seat at the Aso Villa.

Some of the odds, identified by the group, have to do with divided, unwholesome support given to Atiku by key elements from his party.

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The group claimed that the key supporters who are supposed to pull their weight behind Atiku are exerting their energies and resources on the battle to retain their seats in their various constituencies.

Such key supporters, according to Eurasia Group, are the governors in the PDP-controlled states and the director general of the Atiku Presidential Campaign Organisation, Senator Bukola Saraki, who is battling to retain his seat in the upper chamber as the representative of the Kwara Central Senatorial Zone.

The report, quoted by The Nation, said: “As we have previously noted, key actors in Atiku’s camp – including his campaign’s Director -General Bukola Saraki, key powerbroker Governor Nyesom Wike of the oil-rich Rivers State, and Southeast governors from his PDP – had been disengaged from his election campaign.

“Wike was annoyed by Atiku’s failure to consult him on key decisions, Saraki remains distracted by a tough Senate reelection battle in Kwara State, and the Southeast governors are hampered by many conflicting motivations, including their own lack of political clout (which makes them reluctant to overtly challenge the federal government) and their wariness of Atiku’s running mate Peter Obi, a former governor of the southeastern Anambra State who they view as a political outsider.

“The lack of enthusiasm on the part of some PDP governors is a problem for Atiku because these officials control significant discretionary funds at the state level (known as “security votes”) that are easier to access without triggering graft concerns.

“They can also leverage strong relationships with security, judicial, and election officers in their respective states. Governors are thus critical to mobilising voter turnout on Election Day.

“With 23 in office compared to the PDP’s 12, the APC already has an edge; unmotivated PDP governors will only reinforce that advantage by making it harder for the opposition to mobilise and sustain voter support on Election Day.”

Specifying some of the advantages the incumbent has over the PDP presidential candidate, the Eurasia Group said President Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) has a widespread political structure to boost voter mobilisation and solidify the president’s advantage.

It noted that the damage done to the APC’s chances due to the suspension of Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN) Justice Walter Onnoghen by President Buhari was not enough to cause defeat.

President Buhari suspended CJN Onnoghen on January 25 following allegations on false declaration of assets against him by the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB). The CCB has since charged the CJN before the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT).

The group further ruled out the possibility of protests against Buhari’s victory.

It said: “These trends support our view that widespread violence is unlikely following the 16 February vote. We have repeatedly argued that Atiku’s voters do not match Buhari’s in passion and are unlikely to risk their lives on the streets for him.

“Though Buhari’s decision to suspend the Chief Justice triggered widespread criticism and stoked passions (along with fears about a more Buhari second term), many voters blame the judiciary for not moving quickly to force CJN Onnoghen’s resignation after he admitted he had violated rules regarding declaration of assets.

“Thus should Atiku lose, as we expect, there will be few motivated stakeholders to encourage or instigate serious violence. Instead, we expect PDP governors to quickly turn their attention to fighting to retain their own jobs in the state elections on March 2.”

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Meanwhile, Legit.ng previously reported that President Buhari sought the support of Nigerians for his re-election in a video on Sunday, February 10 with a big promise.

The president, in the video which was released by his media aide Femi Adesina, urged Nigerians to give him a second opportunity at ruling the country.

He president promised to continue to do right by Nigerians and protect their interests.

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Source: Legit.ng

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